The Future of Global Energy Demand is highly dependent upon the increased energy demand within non-OECD countries and their respective increase of petroleum-dependent technologies. By 2040, it is expected that the world will have a population of approximately 9.2 billion people.

Source: OPEC 2019 World Outlook on Energy Demand

  • Total global primary energy demand is forecast to increase by 71.7 million barrels of oil equivalent a day (mboe/d) from 285.8 mboe/d in 2018 to 357.5 mboe/d by 2040, representing an average growth of 1% per annum.
    • MBOE/D stands for Millions [of] Barrels Of Oil Equivalent Per Day
  • From 2018-2040, energy demand in non-OECD countries is expected to increase by 74.8 mboe/d, while demand in the OECD is forecast to drop by 3.1 mboe/d.
    •  (OECD) stands for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
  • 100 Dollar Bills USD and Oil Barrel Energy Demand Petrol DollarGlobal Energy demand within India and China is anticipated to rise on average by 3.2% and 1.1 per annum, respectively, which accounts for almost 50% of energy demand growth in non-OECD countries over the forecast period.
  • Oil is expected to remain the dominant fuel, with demand growth of more than 10.6 mboe/d by 2040, although this translates to a relatively low growth rate of 0.5% per annum.
  • Geothermal Heating and Cooling Ground Source Heat Pump with Green HouseThe ‘other renewables’ grouping (including mainly solar, wind, and geothermal) remains the fastest-growing source of energy (6.9% per annum) between 2018 and 2040. The largest demand growth is seen for natural gas, with an expected increase of 24.8 mboe/d.
  • Natural gas is the only fossil fuel in OECD countries that is forecast to see demand rise over the projection period, although the increment is minor compared to the expected boost in gas consumption in the non-OECD region.
  • Coal is forecast to see demand growth of less than 1 mboe/d, which is below 0.1% per annum.
  • Oil and gas are anticipated to retain more than a 50% share in global energy demand through 2040.Nuclear Power Plant Alternative Energy Efficiency Future of Electrical Energy Generation
  • A slow but gradual demand increase is forecast for biomass, around 1% per annum., which equates to an additional 7 mboe/d.
  • Demand for nuclear power is expected to increase by around 7 mboe/d (1.9% per annum), while hydro is forecast to witness demand growth of close to 3 mboe/d (1.6% per annum) over the forecast period.
  • The expected overall increase in annual energy-related emissions is 4.4 billion tonnes (bt) between 2018 and 2040. This represents a growth of around 13%, which is only around half of the overall energy demand increase.
  • Despite the declining trend in coal demand after 2030, coal is still forecast to be the largest source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, accounting for almost 40% (14.9 bt) of total emissions in 2040.